“Surveys are reliable” | The Manila Times


SURVEY firms Pulse Asia, OCTA Research and PUBLiCUS argued that the results of pre-election surveys are reliable in predicting public sentiment, as shown by the results of the unofficial vote count.

As of this writing, 98.27% of the election results are reflected in the Comelec transparency server with presumptive President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. leading the race after receiving over 31 million votes, or approximately 58% of the total votes. Presumed Vice President Sara Duterte-Carpio won 31.5 million votes, or 61% of the total vote.

In the latest survey conducted by Pulse Asia from April 16-22, Marcos was supported by 56% of respondents while Duterte-Carpio received 55%, with a margin of error of ±2%.

The former senator also scored 58% in OCTA Research’s April 22-25 survey and 54% in the May 2-5 PUBLiCUS survey. The Mayor of Davao City received support from 56% of OCTA Research respondents and 59% from PUBLiCUS.

Both surveys had a margin of error of ±3% for the national results.

With the results of the pre-election survey and partial unofficial votes reflected in the transparency server Comelec, Pulse Asia’s research director Ana Maria Tabunda said her survey results reflect people’s feelings.

“[T]he fact that our results reflect the Comelec count shows that the surveys are reliable. The results of the pre-election polls are only one source of information that the public must take into account in the choice of their candidates, so the polls cannot be considered as tools of mental conditioning,” he said. she added in a message to the Manila Times.

Similarly, PUBLiCUS executive director Aureli Sinsuat said the results transmitted through the transparency server appear to have validated the polling company’s consistent findings throughout the election season.

“[Our findings were consistent that] Bongbong Marcos and Sara Duterte-Carpio would win by a large margin on Election Day. It is a vindication of the scientifically sound polling methods employed by legitimate polling companies,” he said.

Ranjit Rye, a researcher at OCTA, said in an interview with the Manila Times that the elections have validated the reliability of surveys, especially those that use scientific methods to collect data and have a transparent and accountable process for publishing their methodologies. and their results.

“Surveying, for a beginner like us, it is very important to get it right. Surveys are scientific, they are reliable. There has been a lot of criticism in the past, but once again surveys have proven reliable.” he added.

However, Rye noted that there could still be discrepancies in a pre-election survey, as seen with the percentage of support garnered by Vice President Maria Leonor “Leni” Robredo. He said they expected her to get 10-12 million votes. But instead, it was supported by more than 14 million voters, as shown by the Comelec Transparency Server.

The OCTA fellow added that their results were similar to those of the senators, but in confusing positions – especially for actor Robin Padilla being the senatorial best bet.

Overall, polling companies Pulse Asia, OCTA Research and PUBLICUS claimed that the results of the pre-election polls reflected partial unofficial election results from transparency server Comelec and maintained that the poll results remained reliable to reflect sentiment. of the public on polling day.

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