Robredo supporters insist Google Trends point to victory despite lag in polls

Leni Robredo — OVP FILE PHOTO

LAPU-LAPU CITY, Cebu — Supporters of Vice President Leni Robredo have insisted that Google Trends, which tracks searches for entries related to presidential candidates, points to a victory for Robredo contrary to what recent scientific investigations have projected.

A statement from the camps supporting Robredo’s presidential candidacy on Friday highlighted that campaign strategist Alan German’s stance on the vice president consistently fetches the most shares in terms of searches for a presidential bet.

German previously said that behavior patterns predicted by Google Trends can be compared to the reality show The Biggest Loser, where contestants can win a certain challenge for one day but can eventually lose at the end of the competition.

“In parallel, it shows you behavioral patterns such as the quality of your eating habits and your daily exercise routines, among others. You may be the winner of that specific period, but if your opponent has better behaviors than you , she will be the real winner,” German said in a statement sent by Robredo supporters.

“With the behavior patterns available, one can predict who will be the real winner in the end. In the case of the elections in the Philippines, who will be the biggest winner,” he added.

Current data from Google Trends, which covers the period from April 10 to 16, showed that Robredo appeared in 47% of all searches for the top five presidential candidates in the 2022 national elections. Behind her is the mayor of Manila Francisco “Isko Moreno” Domagoso and former senator Bongbong Marcos with 20% each.

That means Marcos’ number has dropped nine percentage points, as he held a 29% share in a report released on April 6.

Comparing numbers from Robredo, Marcos and Moreno also showed the outgoing VP to top the interest metric over time, which Google Trends describes as a search term’s popularity for a specific time period. .

From April 15-22, Robredo averaged 59, while Moreno and Marcos averaged 24 and 23 respectively.

Over the months, Robredo has maintained a huge lead over its rivals on search entries and interests based on Google Trends.

Marcos’ running mate and Davao City Mayor Sara Duterte-Carpio meanwhile got the most searches and interest among vice-presidential bets. The latest data showed Duterte-Carpio was also able to maintain her lead, but the gap between her and Robredo’s running mate, Senator Francis Pangilinan, has narrowed.

Duterte-Carpio now appears in 46% of searches while Pangilinan got 27% of searches – up from 56-22 on April 6.

READ: Google Trends: Leni, Sara are the most searched bets

But if there are any Robredo supporters who think Google Trends data on search entries is accurate — citing the case of other countries’ elections where Google Trends results appeared to mirror official election tallies — they There are opposition critics reminding people to refrain from relying solely on Google Trends.

According to literary critic Katrina Stuart Santiago, who was on several national candidate campaign teams in recent elections, it might be wrong to assume that Google Trends tells who will win an election because it may be driven by artificial or magnified factors. . searches – which will result in inflated numbers.

Santiago pointed out that Google does not reveal who searches for Robredo and all the other candidates.

“Google Trend numbers do NOT tell you who is doing the research. Armies on either side could manipulate these numbers. Just as some armies might not care about Google because they are ahead of actual scientific investigations Santiago said in a Facebook post dated Wednesday.

“Yeah, you want to find numbers to hang on to so you can have hope. But I think if you believe in the groundswell and the rallying numbers, the goal should be to create a communications strategy that creates massive, diverse creative content out of that. Because what is hope when it’s based on dubious numbers? she asked.

Santiago was referring to scientific surveys conducted by polling companies that have released data that puts Robredo far behind Marcos.

No new polls have been released, but Pulse Asia’s latest poll – held March 17-21 or just a month before Friday – showed Marcos ahead with 56%, compared to Robredo’s 24%. .

This was despite Robredo’s score going up nine percentage points from February’s edition and Marcos dropping four percentage points.

READ: Marcos still leads new Pulse Asia survey, but Robredo’s count jumps 9 points

But despite the huge gap, Robredo’s campaign team is adamant that polls have begun to reflect the massive groundswell for the vice president, as evidenced by gigantic rallies in several parts of the country – including including some areas considered bailiwicks of its adversaries.

On March 26, Robredo was able to muster more than 100,000 supporters in Pasig City, despite polls indicating the National Capital Region was voting for Marcos.

Similarly, the Robredo camp staged its biggest rally ever, with supposedly more than 220,000 participants heading to Pampanga, which is the home province of former president Gloria Macapagal Arroyo.

Arroyo and his Lakas-CMD party support Marcos and Duterte.

READ: Outpouring of support reflected in Robredo survey spike, says spox


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